McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS64 KFWD 271018
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
518 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray shower or thunderstorm (15-25% chance) will be possible
  near the Red River this afternoon.

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend into
  next week with highs in the mid and upper 90s.

- There is a chance of storms, mainly across North Texas, Monday
  through Wednesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
As expected, a few showers and storms are ongoing across
northwestern North Texas. This activity is expected to continue to
move north through the next few hours, posing little impacts to
our region. Expect most of North and Central Texas to remain
precipitation-free through the morning as temperatures gradually
heat up after sunrise.

The rest of the forecast remains unchanged with a few storms
expected just to the west and north of the DFW Metroplex this
afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated.


Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday Afternoon/

The weather across North and Central Texas is quiet this early
Friday morning, however, showers and storms continue across the
Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. As we approach sunrise, a few
isolated decaying showers will be possible along the Red River,
posing little to no impacts to our region. An weak surface
boundary will lay from southwest to northeast across North Texas
as we approach peak afternoon heating. This will likely lead to a
focused area for showers and storms to develop. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rain and gusty
sub-severe outflow winds. This thunderstorm activity will come to
an end as we approach sunset. Temperatures this afternoon will
reach the lower to mid 90s with heat index values approaching 100
degrees in many locations.

Once today`s rain chances come to an end, the forecast becomes
rather uneventful as high pressure builds across the Southern
Plains. This should mitigate any additional rain chances through
at least Saturday afternoon with temperatures a few degrees warmer
compared to Friday. A few more heat index values in the triple
digits can be expected, however, it`ll be well below any heat
related headlines.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/
/Saturday Night Onward/

A mid level ridge will provide another hot and largely rain-free
day on Sunday, with just a few more seabreeze showers across
Central Texas. Otherwise, highs in the 90s and heat index values
of 99 to 103 can be expected. The ridge will weaken and its axis
will shift to the west starting Monday as a shortwave trough drops
southeast through the Great Lakes region. This pattern shift will
drive a weak cold front south across the Red River Monday night,
and the boundary will likely stall somewhere between the Red River
and I-20 on Tuesday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night as modest
forcing for ascent accompanies the passing shortwave, with rain
chances mainly along the Red River nearest the front. Better rain
chances should occur Tuesday afternoon and evening as the
atmosphere destabilizes and the stalled front serves as a focus
for convective initiation. Storm coverage will be of the isolated
to scattered variety, with the best chances being near the surface
front. This will place the best rain chances across North Texas,
but will extend 20 POPs southward through Central Texas owing to
the possibility of any southward pushing outflow boundaries.
Severe weather is not likely due to weak flow aloft, but gusty
winds and small hail may accompany some of the stronger storms.

Convection will start to weaken around sunset and should dissipate
by midnight Tuesday night. The front will become more diffuse
while retreating to the north on Wednesday while the ridge
restrengthens overhead, which will decrease convective coverage
and limit POPs to 20 percent for all but the northeast zones.
Convection should become completely shut off on Thursday and
Friday as the ridge further strengthens. One caveat will be the
future behavior of a tropical cyclone off of Mexico`s Pacific
Coast. Recent operational guidance hints at the storm`s mid level
circulation being drawn north across Mexico into the Big Country
of Texas around the west flank of the ridge, which could lead to
the introduction of POPs across the western counties in future
forecasts. The rest of the region would still experience a typical
hot and rain-free July 4th.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

South winds are ongoing across North and Central Texas, generally
between 5-10 kts. A few mid and upper level clouds continue across
D10 and Central Texas, however, no impacts are ongoing.

As we head into the afternoon, a few thunderstorms may develop
north and west of the D10 airspace. Minor en-route air traffic
impacts are possible as thunderstorm coverage will be fairly
isolated. Although a few outflow boundaries may develop, location
and direction of each boundary remains uncertain at this time. All
thunderstorm activity will come to an end around sunrise, leaving
behind another night of VFR with southerly winds around 10 kts.

Hernandez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  77  95  77  96 /  10   5   0   0   5
Waco                93  75  94  75  94 /   5   0   0   0   5
Paris               90  74  90  74  92 /  30   5  10   0  10
Denton              93  76  96  76  97 /  20   5   0   0   5
McKinney            92  76  95  76  95 /  20   5   5   0   5
Dallas              94  78  96  77  97 /  10   5   0   0   5
Terrell             91  74  94  75  94 /  10   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           93  76  95  75  94 /   5   5   0   0  10
Temple              94  74  95  74  95 /   5   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       94  75  98  75  98 /  20   5   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$